One Currency, Two Markets: An Offshore Exploration of RMB Internationalization
中央汇金公司原总经理谢平推荐《一种货币，两个市场》
This foreword was written by Xie Ping, former Deputy General Manager of China Investment Corporation and former General Manager of Central Huijin Investment Ltd., for the book One Currency, Two Markets: An Offshore Exploration of RMB Internationalization.
本文为中投公司原副总经理、中央汇金公司原总经理谢平为《一种货币，两个市场：人民币国际化的离岸探索》撰写的推荐序。 https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA5OTkxNTM5MA==&mid=2654648898&idx=1&sn=67bf8de306a59fed8ed922f5715f082f&chksm=8a175f3204b42f55faf40997f339264ea311c4d82039da98d99bb5c3757f56944a74457d06d3&mpshare=1&scene=1&srcid=1013x3fl1qQYCYseWSnGQH4O&sharer_shareinfo=edaa76ca13e7d27d888f5835ddd3a71c&sharer_shareinfo_first=edaa76ca13e7d27d888f5835ddd3a71c#rd
Correctly understanding economics means grasping the essence of how the world operates. The global monetary system has undergone a series of profound transformations, from the gold standard to the Bretton Woods system and then to the post–Bretton Woods regime. The internationalization of a currency is a concept rich in dimensions and an exceptionally complex process of gradual advancement, in which any single adjustment may have broad and far-reaching implications. Given China’s particular circumstances, the internationalization of the renminbi, the management of foreign exchange reserves, and the control of systemic risk all require special and careful consideration. It follows that the renminbi’s internationalization can only proceed in a gradual, steady, and prudential manner. Under such conditions, the development of offshore markets plays a crucial role in supporting the broader project of renminbi internationalization.
From a historical perspective, for a national currency to evolve into an international currency, it must satisfy a range of conditions. First and foremost, the issuing country’s economy must attain a significant and influential position in the global system; this is the primary prerequisite. In addition, the country must possess highly developed, elastic, deep, and diversified capital markets; it must establish a sound, stringent, trustworthy, and enforceable regime of property-rights protection; it must offer transaction mechanisms that are convenient and low cost; and it must build a payment and settlement infrastructure capable of operating on an international scale. All of these are indispensable economic and financial conditions.
In this new book, Professors Jin Tao and Dr Tian Yuan provide an in-depth analysis of the successful model through which renminbi internationalization has advanced progressively via offshore markets. From multiple perspectives—ranging from theory and empirics to history and contemporary practice, and from strategic positioning to concrete roadmaps—they offer a comprehensive exposition of the origins and trajectories of offshore renminbi development. The narrative is engaging and intellectually stimulating.
This new work has two particularly noteworthy features. The first is its problem orientation and originality of perspective. The authors pose questions that go directly to the essence of the phenomena under study, in a spirit of “investigating things to acquire knowledge,” thereby reaching the core of the issues. For example, they ask: What is the fundamental nature and value of offshore renminbi markets? What explains the underlying controversies surrounding the internationalization of domestic currencies in general? What is especially commendable is that the authors weave these questions together in an organic fashion and systematically consider both the commonalities and specificities of renminbi internationalization relative to other currencies. On several frontier issues, they manage to penetrate to the heart of the matter and assess present developments through a historical lens. Consider, for instance, their discussion of policy coordination between onshore and offshore renminbi markets. Because China’s capital account is not yet fully liberalized, the advance of renminbi internationalization must rely on offshore markets and must be designed with an overall view of both onshore and offshore segments. In this context, adhering to the direction of market-oriented reform and safeguarding Hong Kong’s status as an international financial centre is of paramount importance. In this book, the authors offer fresh perspectives on the problems that arise from institutional differences between the onshore and offshore renminbi markets and on the policy trade-offs these differences entail, articulating academic views rich in analytical and dialectical reasoning.
Professors Jin Tao and Dr Tian Yuan place particular emphasis on the driving role of market forces in their research. The offshore renminbi market aggregates the heterogeneous demands of a diverse set of international investors and thereby creates an open, multi-sided game in the global financial arena. Developments in the offshore renminbi market can be viewed as a kind of “dress rehearsal” for China’s onshore market; the experiences accumulated in this process can all serve as valuable references for onshore reforms and policy design.
The second defining feature of this book is that it offers a general analytical framework for understanding the issues at hand. The so-called “impossible trinity” (or “trilemma”) of open-economy macroeconomics is a classic proposition in international economics: in an open economy, no country can simultaneously achieve full monetary-policy autonomy, complete capital mobility, and a fixed exchange rate; at most, two of the three can be attained. In China’s case, monetary policy must balance multiple objectives, which in practice implies that China operates at what may be termed a “non-corner solution” within this framework. The two authors innovate by exploring the dynamic balance inherent in such a non-corner solution and the trade-offs it entails. Starting from broad-based empirical evidence at the global level, they engage in a dialectical discussion of China’s idiosyncratic circumstances and, in doing so, provide an instructive practical reference for the globalization trajectories of emerging-market economies more generally.
It is worth highlighting that this book deploys mathematical language to provide precise definitions of such concepts as the non-corner solution, interior solution, and stability within the “impossible trinity” framework, while also underscoring the importance of regulatory coordination between onshore and offshore domains. This mathematically grounded mode of precise description extends the frontier of current theoretical research in economics and is at the cutting edge of the academic literature. By leveraging the connotations of “solutions” in this mathematical framework, the authors show that the economic policies of any country, implemented in any manner, can be mapped into different types of solutions and analyzed accordingly. The research achievements in this domain thus possess substantial academic value.
A Single Currency, Two Markets: The Offshore Exploration of Renminbi Internationalization offers a comprehensive review and systematic exposition of renminbi internationalization and the construction of offshore markets. The conclusions derived from this research provide important guidance for the future advance of renminbi internationalization. At a time when the United States and China are experiencing an inversion of interest-rate differentials, when geopolitical conflicts are increasingly complex, and when financial markets are exhibiting heightened uncertainty, the academic insights presented in this study are all the more illuminating.
Ideas shape reality. A forward-looking understanding of the future lies at the very heart of finance. I extend my heartfelt congratulations on the innovative contributions achieved in this book and warmly commend this remarkable work to all readers.
— Xie Ping
Former Deputy General Manager, China Investment Corporation;
Former General Manager, Central Huijin Investment Ltd.正确认识经济学，就是认识世界的本质。全球货币体系经历了从金本位到布雷顿森林体系，再到后布雷顿森林体系的变迁。货币国际化是一个元素丰富的概念，也是一个异常复杂的推进过程，往往牵一发而动全身。中国的特殊性要求我们对人民币国际化、外汇储备、风险防控有特殊的考虑，因此人民币国际化必定是一个渐进、稳步和审慎的推进过程。在这种情况下，离岸市场建设对于人民币国际化推进起着至关重要的作用。
从历史来看，一国货币要成为国际货币，需要具备多方面条件。经济总量上要能在全球占据显著且具影响力的地位，这是首要前提。此外，本国拥有发达、有弹性、有深度、多样化的资本市场；建立完善、严格、可信赖和可实施的产权保护制度；拥有便利和低成本的交易机制；具备支付清算体系的国际化等，都是不可或缺的经济和金融条件。
金涛教授和田园博士的这部新著深度剖析了人民币国际化通过离岸市场渐进推进的这一成功实践模式，从理论和实证、历史和现实、立足点和路线图等视角全方位阐述了人民币离岸发展的缘起和路径，引人入胜、启发思考。
这部新著有两个突出的特点。第一个特点是问题导向和视角新颖。针对事物的本质提出问题，格物致知，直抵内核。比如人民币离岸市场的本质和价值是什么，国际上对本币国际化争论背后的原因是什么，等等。难能可贵的是，两位作者在新著中把这些问题有机地结合在一起，并系统性考虑了人民币国际化与其他货币国际化的共性和个性。针对一些较前沿的问题，两位作者能直抵问题的实质，用历史的眼光看待当下的情况。比如对于人民币离岸、在岸政策协调的讨论，由于中国资本项目尚不可自由兑换，人民币国际化的推进需要借助离岸市场，需要统筹在岸和离岸两个市场，因此坚持市场化改革方向、维护香港国际金融中心的地位极为重要。两位作者在新著中视角新颖地剖析了人民币离岸和在岸两个市场由于机制不同而存在的问题，以及对相关政策的权衡考量，表达了具有思辨性质的学术观点。
金涛教授和田园博士在研究中特别强调了市场力量的推动作用。离岸人民币市场汇集了国际多元投资者的多样化需求，在国际金融市场中形成了一个开放的多方博弈的局面。人民币离岸市场发生的情况，相当于为中国在岸市场提供了一个预先的彩排，这期间产生的所有经验都可以为在岸市场提供参考。
这部新著的第二个特点是提供了一个分析问题的一般性框架。开放经济的“三元悖论”是国际经济学中的一个著名论断，即在开放经济环境下，任何经济体在货币政策自主制定、资本自由流动和汇率稳定之间只能三选其二。由于中国的货币政策需兼顾多重目标，因此中国实际上操作的是该框架下的“非角点解”（Non-Corner Solution）。本书的两位作者创新性地讨论了这种“非角点解”的动态平衡及其中的利弊权衡考量，从世界范围内的一般性经验证据出发，辩证讨论了中国的个性化情况，并为新兴市场国家的整体全球化进程提供了一个实践样本参考。
特别提及的是，这部新著用数学语言精准定义了“三元悖论”框架下的“非角点解”“内点解”及“稳定性”等概念，并强调了在岸和离岸的监管协调，这种数学范式的精准描述拓展了当前经济学理论研究的边界，在学术上较为前沿。运用这个数学范式的“解”的内涵，任何国家和任何方式的经济政策都可以纳入不同类型的“解”中进行讨论，这方面的研究成果在学术上具有很高的价值。
《一种货币，两个市场：人民币国际化的离岸探索》对人民币国际化和离岸市场建设进行了全面回顾和系统阐释，其中得到的研究结论对日后人民币国际化的推进具有很强的借鉴意义。尤其是当前出现了中美利率倒挂、纷繁复杂的地缘政治冲突，金融市场越发表现出不确定性，这项研究所阐释的学术观点更具启发性。
理念塑造现实。对未来的理解，恰恰是金融的核心。我对本书取得的创新性研究成果表示衷心祝贺，谨向各位读者热情推荐这部佳作。
——中投公司原副总经理、中央汇金公司原总经理谢平
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